The New World Order –concept for WKF 2025
The power triangle as basis of world conflicts
The basis of conflicts in today´s world is still the unstable power triangle between the US, Russia and China and the main gambling figures: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
Donald Trump, the 47th president of the United States, won the elections convincingly to the dismay of some and satisfaction of the others. Whatever their judgement, who was right, who was wrong, history will show. Fact is: his intention has been not only to make America great again, but to be remembered as a peacemaker and not a warmonger. He wanted quick solutions. Within 4 weeks he would have solved the Ukraine Crisis and the conflict of Gaza. That was his ambition. But as so often, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. It did not work out so far. 1
His endeavour remains the same: he wants the end of dying. He wants the Europeans to take more responsibility for the European war theatre, so the USA can concentrate on
the Pacific war theatre. “It is Selenskyi´s, Putin´s and Biden´s war, not his”, he stated.
Split in the West
What he has achieved so far is a split in the West. On the one hand the coalition of the willing, France, Great Britain, Germany, Poland and Italy, a coalition not at all homogenic, all of them in the NATO, but not all of them in the EU. The European Union has meanwhile accomplished the 17th package of anti Russian sanctions – and this won´t be the last package.
The sanctions hit economics, individuals and visa-measures. They have been expanded towards Belarus, Iran and North-Korea and lead to the freezing of capital and Russian assets amounting to 210 Milliards of €. In spite of that all attempts to end the conflict failed so far.
The treaties of Minsk under the chairmanship of France, Russia and the USA, later expanded to the Minsk Group, Belarus, Finland, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, Armenia and Aserbeidschan were not worth the paper on which they were printed. Their objective was:
A. a ceasefire
B. Retreat of heavy armaments
C. Buffer zone, demilitarized and in the end controlled by Ukraine – an illusion, not acceptable for Russia.
Although it started promising in 1997 with the NATO-Russian Basic Accord. Stating that NATO and Russia don´t see each other as enemies.
Two years later in 1999 the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary became NATO members.
Five years later the Baltic States, Slovakia, Slovenia, Rumania and Bulgaria joined NATO.
March 2024 the once neutral states Finland and Sweden became NATO members.
Since Russia annexed the Crimea we observe a revival of the Cold War triggered by the Ukraine crisis in February 2022.
Today both sides reproach each other to have weakened the Russia-NATO basic accord.
The meeting in Istanbul in May this year was the first Russian-Ukrainian meeting since three years, but it was hold on a low level, with the main representatives absent and the result was meagre too. They agreed on an exchange of prisoners of war, 1000 each.
Russia insists that Ukraine should give up territory- the Eastern Oblasts and resents NATO-membership.
Ukraine: resents territorial sacrifices and insists on US-security guaranties.
CHINA´S part in the Ukraine Conflict
China´s role in the Ukrainian conflict is ambiguous to say the least and tries to uphold a balance policy between Russia and the United States. There is no open criticism of Russian intervention. Let me quote the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, who characterized the Chinese-Russian relations as “rock solid”. Russia is the strategic partner of China and China is the most important ally of Russia. The commercial relations have been intensified. Strategic partnership agreements were signed. In spite of that China is looking to uphold commercial relations with Europe. In particular after Donald Trump´s threat to install protective tariffs on European and Chinese goods Xi Tschinping was quick to underline the importance of free world trade.
Concerning the Ukraine conflict China emphasized the necessitiy of a diplomatic solution an 8th of March 2022 and proposed a ceasefire on March 2023. As the vice chairman of the China-German committee and long standing representative of the commercial chamber of Baden Württemberg in Nanjing said just recently, Russia has to grant very good conditions for gas exports to China, also for selling other natural ressources to China. Russia has to offer them at a very low price.
This is also shown in this illustration: Graphic Nr.2: The EU wants to stop to import Russian oil, gas and nuclear materials by 2027. Russia will increase its oil exports to China until 2034 from 7 to 12,5 million tons. Whereas Gazprom for the first time lost 7 billion US$ in 2024. Russia is bolstering an energy alliance with China, but the 2nd Siberian pipeline is under discussion for 20 years, Beijing offering only 60 US$ per 1000 m³ whereas Russia needs +200 US$ per 1000m³.
China realizes that a very complex historical and geopolitical situation has led to the war in Ukraine. One must not forget, that China believes in an undivided territorial sovereignty, as the one China theory proves and therefore shows understanding for Putin´s grip on Ukraine, which in his point of view was an integral part of the Soviet Union.
What connects Russia with China?
1. There is the common enemy – the USA.
But that´s about all. China sees in Russia a regional power, an economically overestimated power and a militarily overstrained power. But, if you combine Russia´s and China´s military forces in comparison to the military forces of the United States, than one can´t deny, with the exception of aircraft, that there is an impressive overweight as Graphic Nr.3 illustrates:
In soldiers it´s 1,4 Mio to 3,2, in tanks 6.100 to 16,205, in warships 490 to1,377, aircraft 13,233 to 7,404. China has also advanced technically as was shown on May 7th 2025 when a Pakistan aircraft shot down 2 Rafaele jet fighters with Chinese jets and missiles. A Chinese-Russian alliance could oust the US as a superpower. So to make it short and clear: China is interested in cheap natural resources and profits by the weakening of Russia in a war of atrocity. But Russia is coming back as a superpower. This is an important shift of arguments after 3 years of war in Ukraine - as articulated by the editor in Chief of the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, NZZ from 9th of May 2025. This date is an important historic memorial day, because exactly 80 years ago the German Reich under Hitler capitulated, May 8th 1945 and that is the day of victory Russia celebrates every year with a big military parade – rightly so. Russia has paid the highest price in human losses against Nazi Germany. That one never should forget. And another fact should be kept in mind as Eric Grujer, the editor in chief of the NZZ of May 9th 2025 wrote in an editorial and I quote: Whenever the breakdown of Russia seemed unavoidable, it did not happen. That was so in 1917, in 1941, in 1999. The weakness of Russia is only temporarily.
1st Gorbatschow agreed to the NATO membership of Germany as a whole.
2nd. Kohl granted Russia credits of 12 Mrds of Mark to best conditions.
3rd. US played the European Card. Obviously because they needed the support of Russia to enlarge NATO. ( As the than foreign minister of USA Madeleine Albright stated).
In the thinking of Vladimir Putin the breakdown of the Berlin wall and the fall of the Iron Curtain was the greatest catastrophy of the 20th century. Now three decades after this historic ceasure the situation has changed: As Eric Grujer analizes: NATO has to decide. Either to contain Russia as a paria state or - if this fails - Russia should be integrated into a European Security system. Either Confrontation or cooperation – that is the question.
The involvement of the West in Ukraine was always half hearted. There was always an exit strategy behind. That seesaw policy holds on until Donald Trump´s contradictory statements. First the éclat with Zelenskyj on camera and now critizising Putin for his enduring bombardement of civil objects in Ukraine. Also the Europeans are not clear, be it Hungary, Spain, Italy or the new German Coalition government under Friedrich Merz. After years of hesitance they have situated a 5.500 strong brigade in Lithuania. Behind that seemingly undecidedness is not only the fear of triggering a third world war, but also the dependence on Russian oil and gas. For cutting this the EU has to pay a high price in form of inflation and recession.
The main question remains unanswered: Wheter a NATO membership would have impeded the Russian intervention is a theoretical question, what comes first the hen or the egg?
The 2nd question is, wheter the Europeans alone are in a position to deter Russia? And this always leads to the question, wheter Germany is ready to play a leading role and to finance that by increasing the defense budget substantially? The answer to that is not very explicit either. At least that is the impression of a long interview of the German defence minister Boris Pistorius, published in the German news magazine, “Der Spiegel” from 12th of April 2025. He speaks of a longterm investment plan, a law for acceleration of planning and acquisition, and a new military service, initially on a voluntary basis, as it is practised in Sweden. He hopes to avoid a discussion about an obligatory military service. His objective is to make the German Army, the Bundeswehr, fit for war until 2029.
He insists on the introduction of the F-35, which is a multilateral project of 14 NATO members, inclusive the US. He is not ready to break these agreements, first of all because it would cost billions of Euros, 2nd he does not want to to disturb the relationship with the United States and 3rd the F35 is the only aircraft by which the nuclear participation of Germany is guaranteed. He is convinced the United States are not interested in an killswitch, which would produce a massive trust crises between the USA and Germany and their military – industrial complexes and cooperation.
The question, wheter he would accept Macrons offer that France let Germany participate on its nuclear deterrence, Pistorius did circumvent diplomatically: To accept a negotiations offer is always clever, the French government so far has not presented more than an offer and the question, wheter he, Pistorius, thinks an European nuclear deterrence would be desireable, he says first and foremost he has to deal with an increase of the conventional deterrence. Should the US under Trump reduce their troops presence in Germany, is not connected to the nuclear umbrella of the US. He shows understanding that the US won´t be with the same strength in Europe, when they simultaneously focus on the Indopacific area and Asia. A new burden sharing is necessary. That´s why he proposes his NATO partners should work on a coordinated road map. Dangerous lacks in the security architecture must be avoided. So far my summary of the interview with the German Defense Minister, which gives a very good insight of the challenges of European security within the power triangle of USA, China and Russia.
What to do?
In relation to the Russian economy, the following Graphic 4, illustrates that Russia might have the longer breath.
So what should be done to deescalate the Ukrainian Crisis? Foremost there should be no taboos in thinking.
1st. A formal guarantee that the process of NATO expansion has to stop.
2nd. A recognition of influence spheres
3rd. Ukraine persists as a buffer state.
That is not an easy message for Zelenskyj to swallow. I am aware of that. And I recur to the analysis of the NZZ editor in chief. If the will or capacity of winning over Russia in Ukraine is lacking, it is time for a political settlement. You can´t have both. This analysis is shared by a very prominent figure of German politics, Klaus von Dohnany, a close cabinet member of the onetime chancellors Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt. In an interview in German TV ZDF May 28th 2025 he stated 3 points:
1. Germany must lead within the framework of a European patriotism,
2. Europe must develop her own deterrence. That means we must be fit for peace not for war.
3. Putin has no intention to attack NATO, but one has to understand that the whole NATO corridor from Lithuania to Rumania is perceived by Russia as a threat.
The end of the West?
So is it still undispensable to increase the military capacities especially those of Germany to obstruct Putin from further military expansionism? Or is this a dangerous path toward a 3rd world war?
Michael Todd a French anthropologist and historian, who has rightly prophesized the implosion of the Soviet Union, now anticipates the end of the West, the loosing of the war in Ukraine and sees bad cards for the USA in relation to China.
In an interview published in the Swiss Weltwoche from the 22nd of May 2025 he expresses the opinion that Russia has already won the war in Ukraine, because the US failed to beat Russia with the help of the Ukrainian army. And that Russia will go on fighting until it has neutralized the Ukraine. For both wars, that in Ukraine and that in Gaza he holds the US responsible. The West will give up Ukraine as he has given up Vietnam and Afghanistan.
The weakness of the European Union is evident, because it threatens with sanctions without having the means to enforce them. In the eyes of Todd Germany is the only European state which has the industrial capacity to make Germany the dominant power in the European Union and that is perceived by Russia as a threat to her security. Russia never forgets that Nazi Germany was responsible for the deaths of 25 Millions of Russians in the 2nd world war.
The double crisis in the Middle East and in Europe, which is in addition weakened by an uncontrolled migration, has the ingredients of a global crisis. Graphic 5: The involvement of 12.000 North Koreans into the European war theatre is an indication of that tendency. 4000 of them already died in the battlefield. A Ukrainian commander described them as young, fit and hard fighters, they rather blow themselves up before being taken prisoners and they are not anywhere prepared for today´s drone and electronic warfare. They have been sacrificed, cannon fodder, to put it bluntly.
China sitting on the fence
China as the second global power also in military potential (Greaphic 6), wants to stay behind in the European war theatre, remains as a fence looker, but keeps up a high level of pressure in the Indopacific area, against Taiwan in particular, by training amphibious landing operations in the first year in office of Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te. An article in the May issue of the Chinese military magazine “Naval and Merchant Ships” listed 30 to 40 super critical targets that could lead to a chain collapse of infrastructure systems and create a situation of win without fighting. This article has to be taken seriously in the context of psychological warfare.
(Graphic 7), As a very experienced and longtime German and European representative of the Chamber of Commerce in China, Jörg Wuttke, said just recently in a speech in the Austrian Society for Foreign Affairs and International Relations, China never must be underestimated. It is leading in engeneering and chemistry, competitive in price and speed. Every two years a new car is produced, 14 containerships – 35 wharfs ! - have been built to increase export volume, and its overproduction causes a problem for Europe in particular for the car industry, where they are leading in new technologies, e.g. electric, selfdriving cars and also in AI, artificial intelligence. On the other hand China has the lowest birth rate worldwide, water is her biggest problem and 14 Million graduates from universities are without a job. The power monopoly increasingly is in the hands of Xi Tschinping versus a weaker seen Putin and it is his ambition to overrule the United States as a military and economic world power.
Graphic 8: The PRC is not supporting with manpower, but contributes in supplying dual-use goods, machine tools and critical materials (like microelectronics, displays, etc.)
Containment as the answer
Containment is the only answer to the multiple crisis in the world. That of course is easier said than done. And I myself hesitate to say there is a simple way out of a still very unstable triangular power constellation between the US, Russia and China. The most important principle of course is peace is better than war, free trade is better than protectionism, democracy better than dictatorship. That sounds very simplistic, yet one can assume that most of the stakeholders would support these principles. Between the important players should be a consensus that none has to dominate the other and there has to be a balance of power. That applies to regional powers as well as world powers. That is a pragmatic approach and not an ideological one. But sometimes pragmatism is a better way to solve problems even if the solutions seem to be rather limited.
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