The role of Europeans
in assisting an efficient mechanism for prevention, preparedness, response and
recovery of natural disasters in North Korea.
Dr.
Antoine Bondaz
Director of the FRS-KF Korea Program
Last year, I explained it was essential for the European
Union and its member states to move from a strategy of critical engagement to
implementing a more proactive strategy of credible commitments in four areas:
political engagement, non-proliferation, the implementation of restrictive
measures and engagement with the North Korean people. Such a renewed strategy
should be highly coordinated, build on the many initiatives already being taken
and facilitated by the appointment of an EU Special Representative on North
Korea.
Addressing the North Korean insecurity complex remains
key not only to finding a solution to this proliferation crisis but, above all,
to reducing tensions and the risk of escalation in the event of an incident. While
denuclearizing the peninsula remains an objective, we must learn to live in the
foreseeable future with a North Korea that is not only nuclear but also has
significant conventional capabilities, as evidenced by the development of its
short-range ballistic capabilities. Any heightened tensions in the Peninsula,
as we witnessed in 2010 or 2016/2017, is a threat to regional peace and
stability, and thus to European interests.
Addressing the North Korean insecurity complex while
caring about the North Korean people is fundamental and in this context. We can
always get into the eternal debate about lifting sanctions even though we
unfortunately know the answer. As long as there is no concrete progress in the
negotiations between the United States and North Korea, it is unrealistic to
hope for a partial lifting of sanctions. And as Europeans, our leverage in
these negotiations is limited. As I often say, Europeans cannot choose the
course of the river or even make it flow if it is dry, we can simply amplify
its flow once it starts flowing again.
Today, therefore, I would like to discuss the role the
Europeans could play in the short term in engaging North Korea while fully
implementing international and autonomous sanctions. And above all, I will
insist on what Europeans can do on their own, without depending on others,
because this is the practical realization of our European strategic autonomy. I argue a coordinated effort
by France, Germany, and Sweden to re-engage North Korea on a non-sensitive but
nevertheless crucial issue, i.e. to establish an effective mechanism for
prevention, preparedness, response and recovery of natural disasters, would
improve the lives of North Koreans while creating momentum for further diplomacy.
In 2019, the 27 European Union member
states accounted for only 0.22% of North Korea's foreign trade. The first
European partner, Poland, for example, had exchanged only US$5.3 million’ worth
of goods with North Korea, compared to US$2,804.4 million for China.And yet, not only European countries have historically
played a key role in the reconstruction and then economic development of the
country, but at the turn of the twentieth century, many hoped that European
countries would play a leading role in the opening and modernization of the
country. Although Europe-North Korean economic relations are now considerably
reduced, or even almost non-existent, due to international sanctions and
European restrictive measures, the Europeans retain a concrete role, whether in
terms of humanitarian aid or as facilitators for international negotiations.
Indeed, there is often a paradox: an overestimation of
the potential for economic cooperation, and in particular trade, and an
underestimation of the added value of Europeans for the country, particularly
in terms of doing capacity-building or providing humanitarian aid. Also, to
speak of Europe as a unified actor is often misleading in that two levels
overlap and complement each other - the community level (European Union)
and the national level (member states) - which gives Europeans significant room
for maneuver by allowing the specificity of each person's contributions to be
valued.
The Europeans played a crucial role in providing
significant humanitarian aid at a time when the North Koreans needed it most,
in the mid-1990s. In total, between 1997 and 2000, the Commission provided a
total of €168 million, via three channels: bilateral aid mostly through the
European Community Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO, later renamed the
Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid
Operations), financing of the World Food Programme, and direct financing of
seven European NGOs. In the 2010s, while bilateral trade collapsed, the
European Union and its member states have continued to provide significant
humanitarian aid to North Korea, despite increasing difficulties for European
NGOs to operate in the country. As part of its critical engagement strategy towards North Korea, the EU
remains deeply committed to humanitarian assistance. Between
2007 and 2019, the European
Union and European
Union member states contributed €242 million with a peak in
2011 with €25 million
The European Union, through ECHO, is the main
contributor, representing 43% of the total. However, some Member States are
extremely involved, such as Sweden (18%), Germany (13%) and France (10%).European NGOs also enjoy
more sustainable and reliant relations with North Korea compared with American
and South Korean NGOs. In addition to the International Federation of Red Cross
and Red Crescent Societies and six UN agencies, the four resident NGOs
(pre-Covid) in North Korea are all European. These NGOs are Première Urgence
Internationale, Triangle Génération Humanitaire, Concern Worldwide and
Welthungerhilfe. Handicap International and Save the Children finally withdrew
from the country in 2019. Also, European Union member states ensured that NGOs received exemptions
from the UN Security Council Resolution 1718 Committee to allow them to
continue implementing humanitarian projects in the country.
The added value of some European NGOs is to focus on
improving networks, capacity building, awareness raising and reintegration into
international networks. It comes the role several European countries played a
key role in multiplying capacity-building programs on economic issues, hoping
to encourage reform of the North Korean economic system in the late 1990s.
According to a study by the Korea Development Institute, between 1997 and 2006,
Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, and even the United
Kingdom served as venues for knowledge-based economic partnership (KP)
programs, ranging from book exchanges to industrial field trips, from the
organization of training programs to the establishment of research institutes.
Some 20 programs were initiated by a handful of actors, including the Swedish
government and German political foundations (Friedrich Naumann Foundation and
Hanns Seidel Foundation).
Today, European humanitarian assistance is now reaching an all-time low due to
the pandemic and the related restrictions, with all humanitarian staff having
left the country. Yet, according to UN sources, an estimated 10.1 million people in North Korea
suffered from food insecurity and were considered as in urgent need of food
assistance in 2020. Approximately 2,670,000 children were estimated to be in
need of humanitarian assistance, and an estimated 140,000 children under 5
would suffer from acute malnutrition and need treatment. It is a moral and
political obligation of the European Union and its member states to continue to
address this humanitarian crisis, and to ensure that European policy continues
to promote the well-being of the North Korean population.
Europeans should now
engage North Korea, and to do so requires a coordination between the three EUMS
with most leverages on North Korea, and also the most diverging views. Since
Paris is often considered as pro-sanctions and Stockholm as pro-engagement, an
E3 format on North Korea gathering France, Germany and Sweden would provide the
consensus needed to adapt the EU strategy on North Korea. France is the only
permanent member of the Security Council, a key country in adopting and
implementing international and autonomous sanctions on North Korea, while
focusing the work of its Cooperation office in Pyongyang on humanitarian and
cultural assistance. Germany, including with its political foundations such as
the CSU-affiliated Hanns-Seidel-Foundation active in the country through
capacity building programs, has the necessary experience and a broad network
with relevant North Korean institutions. Sweden, the only EU country with a
Special Envoy on the Korean Peninsula, has acted as a key facilitator of
dialogue with North Korea, including between Washington and Pyongyang, while
being the biggest provider of humanitarian aid among European countries,
ranking ahead of Germany and France.
It is high time for these three countries to present a
key initiative: to assist the establishment of an effective mechanism for
prevention, preparedness, response and recovery of natural disasters, including
floods and droughts, in North Korea. It would address a North Korean priority
and a major European concern.
Indeed, in its Report of the Fifth Plenary
Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) in
January 2020, Chairman Kim Jong-un underlined the need to “take decisive
measures for protecting the ecological environment in a thoroughgoing way, and
establish a well-knit nationwide crisis management system to cope with natural
disasters”. More recently, at the
latest meeting of the Political Bureau in September, he argued that “all the
cities and counties (should) make their areas remain unperturbed and safe from
any natural disasters.” The country is indeed very affected by natural
disasters, including storms and floods that particularly affect crops while
food insecurity prevails for over 3 decades. In 2019, North Korea stood out as
the worst-hit country in all of Asia. According to the Asian Disaster Reduction
Center, 4 out of 10 North Koreans were impacted by storms only in 2019, i.e.
10.1 million people.
Through the
presentation of our respective crisis management system, including the EU Civil
Protection Mechanism, and online training programs, in close partnership with
the Ministry of Land Protection and Environment of the DPRK, this initiative
would launch the needed debate within the European Union on the need to adopt a
more proactive strategy of credible commitments while fitting into the emerging
EU strategy of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Published in September 2021, it
lists the promotion of “global
efforts to protect people displaced by disasters and climate change in the
Indo-Pacific” as a top priority. It would provide more international visibility
to the Disaster Risk
Management Knowledge Centre that was created in 2019. In addition, linking natural disasters with broader
environmental issues is key since the country faces severe challenges such as
deforestation, substandard farming techniques, poor housing construction, poor
planning, etc. In these fields, Europeans have both the expertise and
experience. The German Hanns-Seidel-Foundation, from 2014 to 2017,
oversaw a project to strengthen the North Korean Forest Management Research Institute´s technical
capacities through local trainings, international seminars as well as overseas
trainings.
The European Union
and its member states have today the opportunity to play a proactive role in
stabilizing the Korean peninsula. They have the leeway and political capital
that neither the U.S. nor South Korea has, while at the same time allowing
North Korea to not be solely dependent on China. If it were to materialize, it would make it possible in the very short
term to restart the dialogue with North Korea, a prerequisite for any future
negotiation with a view to denuclearization and the establishment of a peace
regime.
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