Peace on the Korean Peninsula
After seventy years of war and hostility on the Korean Peninsula, the prospect for peace is within our grasp. It would be tragic if we permitted peace to allude us now, given that we are so close to an historic peaceful resolution of issues with North Korea.
A convergence of events has made peace possible now, after twenty five years of failed negotiations. No doubt, the leaders in the Republic of Korea and the U.S., presidents Moon Jae-in and Donald J. Trump, should be recognized for their courageous work to secure a fair and peaceful resolution of issues with North Korea. True credit, however, goes to North Korea’s Chairman, Kim Jung-un, a transformative leader apparently committed to economic reform and opening to the outside world, with the ultimate goal of reunification with the South. The only impediment to pursuing this goal is a peaceful resolution of issues dealing with North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Resolving these issues, which now seems likely, will facilitate the establishment of normal diplomatic relations with North Korea and presage the beginning of a transformative process that will almost immediately positively impact the 25 million people in North Korea and eventually, the 52 million people in the South. The prospect of this happening is exciting.
We would be naïve, however, if we thought this was inevitable. In fact, if contemporary history is any indicator, it’s equally likely that success will elude us, as it did previously with North Korea: The Agreed Framework of 1994; the Six Party Talks Joint Statement of September 19, 2005 and the Leap Day Agreement of February 29, 2012. Each of these agreements, after months and years of negotiations, ultimately failed, with North Korea intensifying efforts to upgrade its nuclear and missile capabilities, while the international community intensified sanctions on North Korea and further isolated it. This history of failed negotiations should be a wake-up call; securing a peaceful resolution of issues with North Korea is not a given; it’s not inevitable. In fact, the likelihood of stumbling into conflict on the Korean Peninsula was and is a reality.
This reality should have been obvious to us in 2017, when North Korea launched over 20 missiles, to include an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile capable of reaching the continental U.S.; and when North Korea successfully tested a thermonuclear weapon. The United Nations sanctions imposed on North Korea during this period were hard hitting, restricting North Korea’s exports, mainly to China, of coal, textiles, precious metals, fisheries and capping the amount of crude oil and pharmaceuticals needed to keep the country afloat. The upgraded joint U.S.- ROK military exercises, with the introduction of strategic assets, had to be intimidating to the leadership in Pyongyang. So what we had was extreme escalation on both sides --- North Korea going over the top with missile launches, nuclear tests and You Tube presentations taking out Seoul, New York and Washington with nuclear weapons and the international community squeezing the North economically, to include constraints on humanitarian assistance, with joint military exercises making it clear that the North was within striking distance. This was a tense period. It was a period during which, through miscalculation or miscommunication, conflict could have erupted on the Peninsula.
Fortunately, this didn’t happen. Fortunately, it was Kim Jung-un, in his January 2018 New Year’s address to his people and the world, who stated that North Korea, haven proven it has a nuclear deterrent, will now focus exclusively on economic development, to improve the economic well-being of its people. That Byongjin – pursuing economic and nuclear development – will now focus only on economic development. That North Korea, in its pursuit of better relations with the South, was hoping to join the Seoul Winter Olympics, as one team with the South. It was Kim Jung-un who joined Moon Jae-in on April 27, 2018 at the Peace House in Panmunjeom, and signed the historic Panmunjeom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula and declaring “…before the 80 million Korean people and the whole world that there will be no more war on the Korean Peninsula and thus a new era of peace begun.” This was followed by two additional North-South summits and an invitation from Kim Jung-un, passed to senior South Korean officials visiting Kim, to President Donald J. Trump for a meeting to reconcile differences.
Surprisingly and courageously, Trump accepted the invitation, despite the advice he got from his advisers not to meet with Kim. This resulted in the June 12, 2018 historic Singapore Joint Statement committing the U.S. and North Korea to transforming bilateral relations, bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula and North Korea committing to complete denuclearization and the repatriation of those American soldiers killed during the Korean War. Many skeptics said this Joint Statement was vague and lacked clarity. I find that insulting. In fact, there was great clarity in the goals articulated. How we accomplished those goals, obviously, would have to be negotiated.
The second Trump-Kim Summit in Hanoi in March 2019 did not conclude with any joint statement or agreement on the path forward. That was unfortunate but not surprising. More work was required to resolve these complex nuclear and missile issues and for North Korea, the need to see progress with sanctions and establishing a normal bilateral relationship with a peace treaty to finally end the Korean War. Both leaders left the Hanoi Summit committed to working these issues. Indeed, the uniqueness of the trust between Trump and Kim and the trust between Kim and Moon augurs well for progress in resolving these long-standing issues with North Korea.
Hopefully, the lead negotiators from the U.S. and North Korea will hammer out an agreement that meets the needs of all countries: An agreement that commits North Korea to complete and verifiable denuclearization and commits the U.S. to eventually establishing normal relations with the North, with the immediate establishment of liaison offices in the respective capitals and a declaration committing the U.S. to a peace treaty finally ending Korean War. With this, the lifting of selected sanctions as the North commences with the dismantlement of its nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons facilities, in an action-for-action, commitment for commitment process.
Kim Jung-un is a young leader who at the age of 27 inherited an isolated country in dire economic condition, but with nuclear weapons. This young leader, who studied in Switzerland and knows the outside world, probably doesn’t look forward to forty or fifty years of isolation and biting economic sanctions. It appears, based on his bold decisions in meetings with Presidents Moon, Trump and Xi Jinping that he wants change in North Korea. It appears that he wants economic reform and an opening to the world. During the 20th century we’ve seen other dynamic leaders espouse a policy of Reform and Opening – in China with Deng Xiaoping and the former Soviet Union, with Mikhail Gorbachev, to name a few. We now have Kim Jung-un moving in a similar direction.
It would be tragic for the Korean people, the region and the world if we collectively didn’t work even harder to ensure that issues with North Korea are peacefully resolved. A North Korea moving toward complete and verifiable denuclearization should be rewarded with foreign direct investment and access to international financial institutions. And as the North’s economy receives this type of economic stimulus, the prospect for smooth reunification with the South will become a reality that benefits the 80 million Korean people who, after 70 years of war, tension and separated families, deserve peace and economic prosperity.
This is a goal now within our reach. Failure is not an option.
Joseph R. DeTrani
The author was the former Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea. The views are the author’s and not any government agency or department.
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